Aid Reality Report 2020/2021: Aid in the Context of Conflict, Fragility and Climate Emergency – World
A triple crisis of poverty, inequality and climate emergency, exacerbated by a global pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed worrying limits to global solidarity, especially from the international donor community. Within months, the pandemic exposed long-standing structural inequalities both within and between countries. .
In the face of these worsening global challenges, there is an urgent and unprecedented need to maximize financing for development, while focusing on the rapid deterioration of the conditions of the poor and vulnerable. Yet the evidence in this report, and several parallel comments from civil society, points to largely stagnant aid flows, an aid system with systemic ineffectiveness that is highly resistant to change, and a growing prominence of economic and political interests of people. donors in aid priorities. The recently released 2021 United Nations Financing for Sustainable Development Report warns that the pandemic could lead to a lost decade for development, noting that there is a highly divergent and unequal world emerging from lack of access to resources by people. countries and poor people to fight the crisis. Their report cites growing global systemic risks resulting from the interconnections between economic, social (eg health, inequalities) and environmental (eg climate) conditions. World Health Organization (WHO) executive director Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus fears the world is on the brink of “catastrophic moral failure”. Multilateral collaboration is at best limited as a result of “vaccine apartheid” and “me first” vaccine allocations in the North. Increased nationalism in several donor countries, as well as increasing levels of systemic racism, are very worrying trends against the vision and commitments for a Decade of Action for Agenda 2030.
The immediate crisis induced by the pandemic is deep and deep. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted the deepest global recession since World War II for 2020, estimating a 3.5% contraction in global GDP. The prospects for a global recovery are very uneven and depend in part on equitable access to effective vaccines. Inequalities between countries are widening. Sub-Saharan Africa’s real GDP is estimated to have fallen 2.6 percent in 2020, its first continental recession in 25 years. In April 2021, the DAC reported that DAC donor aid to this region decreased by 1% in 2020. By the end of 2021, the GDP of this region is expected to drop to levels not seen since 2008. It is estimated that it could take over a decade for a full recovery. The modest progress made in reducing global poverty since 2015 has proven to be highly vulnerable to the impacts of pandemic shocks. It is estimated that there were 34 million more people living in extreme poverty in sub-Saharan Africa in 2020. This adds to a prepandemic total of 433 million people already deprived of the basic elements to live on. Together, these numbers represent nearly 44% of the subcontinent’s population by 2021. The expected worsening of poverty is not limited to sub-Saharan Africa – it will be felt in every region of the world.
Two-thirds of the additional 225 million people expected to fall into poverty (the poverty line of $ 3.20) live in South Asia. Over 200 million additional people are likely to be reduced to poverty (the poverty line of $ 5.50) in East Asia. Given the likelihood of greater inequality and uncertain growth prospects across the global South, World Bank analysts predict that these trends will continue into 2021 and possibly into 2022. According to them, “The only certainty in this crisis is that it is truly unprecedented in the modern world. history. ”The theme of this report focuses on the interconnections between the growing conditions of ‘fragility’ affecting millions of people living in poverty, the immediate and long-term impacts of climate change, now exacerbated by a global pandemic .
Many of the people hardest hit by the pandemic in countries of the South were already living in fragile contexts and the “furthest behind”. This fragility has had several interrelated characteristics: 1) high levels of poverty and inequality; 2) the breakdown of key institutions; 3) systemic discrimination against ethnic and racial minorities; 4) high levels of violence against women and girls; and 5) political volatility accompanied by repression and tight authoritarian regimes. These conditions are often aggravated by violence and conflict, as governments are unwilling or unable to protect the rights of their citizens. The growing impacts of climate change are increasingly being felt in these same national contexts. Combined, these factors paint a dire picture for millions of affected people around the world.
The number of protracted humanitarian crises (lasting more than five years) has more than doubled over the past 15 years, from 13 to 31.
Over a billion people live in countries affected by these long-term emergencies. The Aid Trends chapter of this report examines aid trends for 30 of the most fragile and conflict-affected countries, where 38% of the population live in extreme poverty. [Tomlinson, Global Aid Trends]. As the pandemic unfolds, time is also running out to deal with the climate emergency.
Climatic and environmental crises continue to disrupt the basic conditions of life on earth. Despite the commitments of the 2015 Paris Agreement, carbon emissions are expected to continue to increase. With the cumulative effect of each year of inaction, scientists predict that the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 ° C limit will be exceeded in less than a decade, and catastrophic 3 ° C warming by the end of the century. Emissions fell 7% during the ‘big break’ of 2020, but to keep global warming at 1.5 ° C, these emissions must fall by 14% each year until 2040. The medium and long term consequences of inaction are critical for the whole world, but especially for the poor and vulnerable.
These impacts will be much deeper and more widespread than even the pandemic, which can be seen as a dress rehearsal of the potential for human rights violations triggered by worsening global warming in the later years of this century. Vigorous social and political movements for strong and coordinated government action are more important than ever to address these intertwined crises. In recent months, international social movements and youth coalitions, indigenous peoples, References in square brackets refer to chapters in this report. environmentalists, human rights activists and scientists are calling for a major paradigm shift.
These changes are necessary to rebuild a more just and equitable post-pandemic world. The political stakes are high and difficult.
Shifting economies and livelihoods towards a zero carbon world is intimidating, especially with the continued resistance of powerful private and private interests and their commitment to carbon dependent global capitalism.
The responses of several governments to the pandemic in the countries of the North have shown that major changes are possible.
Notions of “affordability” and what might be considered “normal” are as much a political constraint as a financial one.
The costs of climate inaction are already paid in the lives of many poor and vulnerable people in the Global South. They manifest themselves in extreme weather conditions destroying their homes and productive infrastructure, reduced availability of scarce water resources, the vulnerability of crops for millions of people involved in small-scale agriculture, and flooding of their homes. communities by storm surges as sea levels rise.
According to the World Bank, the impacts of climate change are changing the lives of those living in fragile and conflict-affected environments. Its analysis identifies the prospect of an additional 132 million people living in extreme poverty by 2030 due to irreversible climate change. By 2050, up to 140 million people could be forced to move within their own countries due to climate-induced disruption to their livelihoods.
In 2019, more than 70% of the internally displaced population was the result of extreme weather events and natural disasters, more than three times the displacement caused by conflict and violence that year.
In this Aid Reality 2020/2021 report, civil society contributors examine the place of aid in responding to these global crises. Donor response will shape development opportunities for the remaining years of the decade. How will donors tackle growing and persistent state fragility and conflict in the lives of people living in poverty? What role will the worsening climate and environmental emergency play in these responses? How will current models of cooperation in the face of the global health pandemic affect development cooperation in the next five years, and possibly the rest of the decade?
The 2020/2021 report provides new evidence of CSOs, both in the South and in the North.
They write about the role of aid in the convergence of fragile contexts, the escalating impacts of the climate crisis and a global pandemic. The chapters critically examine aid reform in these fragile country contexts.
How are donors approaching the Triple Nexus, which calls for greater coordination between humanitarian aid, development and peace actions? Seeking a more holistic approach, the Triple Nexus has gained increased attention since the 2016 World Humanitarian Summit and the 2019 agreement by all Economic Cooperation Organization donors. costs, debt cancellation and interest received for ODA loans.
Development (OECD) Development Assistance Committee (DAC) on a DAC recommendation on the link between humanitarian aid, development and peace. The experience and issues of its implementation are elaborated through country case studies and thematic perspectives on peace and security, social protection and violence against women and girls.
As the climate emergency increasingly shapes the future of humanitarian aid and development, several chapters take a closer look at international climate finance priorities and their potential impacts on the development prospects of vulnerable populations and communities.
Overall, this body of evidence reinforces the Reality of Aid Network’s urgent call for systemic aid reform. Can the pandemic be a moment of opportunity? Could the dramatic spread of COVID-19 change the future of aid?
Could it bring about the necessary transformations in the development and delivery of humanitarian aid that have eluded reform seekers over the past decade? The report offers a number of recommendations to move in this direction.